demographics

Only 9 billion people by 2050?

They say the population explosion will slow down. Maybe, they argue, soon after the peak population of 10 or 11 billion we will see the decline of the number of people, like we see it in many European countries already.

Put aside any kind of global catastrophe or any kind of  Techno Singularity – is this a probable estimate?

I would like to argue that it isn’t. For one, there are 200.000 newborns every day, and this number is getting bigger daily. We are putting on some pressure to limit this expansion. The problem is, that doing so, this  becomes an evolutionary pressure. Which actually favors those who for whatever reason don’t comply, those who tends to have many children no matter what. Women who rejects contraception for medical reasons, for example.

Sooner or later, some of  them will (for whatever reason) pass on their super-fertility to  their offspring!  The toughest reproducers will become the mainstream reproducers. And they will not be stopped as easily as others have been.

This super reproducers will start a new exponential population growth. Among those who ceased to reproduce, those who are still able and willing to do so, will dominate.

Maybe we are already seeing this. Not only in Gaza, India and Egypt,  but small pockets of fast reproducers can be seen in places like Italy.

Eager reproducers will inherit the Earth, starting a new round of unforeseen  population explosion. So, I find these moderate number predictions quite improbable.

They are forgetting how evolution really works.

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