probability

# Yet another dialogue

Him: Once upon a time I had an employee, who was a compulsive lotto player. One afternoon we were working together and he had a combination already written down. He was going to bet on it that night. It was a few hours before the deadline, which he of course missed. We were just too busy to notice on time. Later he told me, it was a winning combination.

Him: Yes, sure.

Me: If he hadn’t missed the deadline, if you two had stopped work earlier, some other combination of numbers would have won.

Him: There is no connection here!

Me: As a matter of fact, there are deep connections. Even if he had managed to submit the ticket he prepared, it would have been just as useless. The drawn lotto numbers would have been different.

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## 4 thoughts on “Yet another dialogue”

1. echo says:

Butterfly effect?
Gave me the chills…

• I suppose we can call it the Butterfly Effect, yes. We see how fragile are our futures – a small and narrow change now, might bring unexpectedly big and/or wide changes tomorrow!

Of course not everything is equally codependent, but almost everything on Earth do influence all the dices thrown in Las Vegas or Monaco tomorrow. The thing is, the influences are extremely unpredictable and therefore quite useless for a manipulation.

Most likely, but I am not entirely sure. Maybe a diesel generator run in Nevada desert would increase a chance for a Snake Eye in a nearby casino? For small vibrations it’s very possible, that they lower the mass center of a thrown dice when it lands.

Other connections are not that obvious, but some of them might be considerable.

2. Winston Miniluv says:

I find this improbable, because someone did (most probably) won the lottery that (or some other) day – why that someone could not be him, your friend’s employee?

You making it sound like as soon one writes the correct combination, the mere act of actually betting on it changes the probability of winning. If this was true, then winnig (writing down the correct combination + betting on it) the lotterry is essentially impossible – which we know it’s not true; some people actually do win the lottery.

I hope I’m making myself clear. But perhaps I’m missing something here. Could you please explain?

Nevertheless, I really enjoy reading your blog, I find it very interesting.

• Thank you.

Well, there was one real guy Napoleon Bonaparte. But there were a lot of guys who just believe, they are Napoleon Bonaparte.

Equally, for every lotto winner, there are several of those, who “forget to register their cast”. Or there ticket was only a bit wrong. Or they have the winning combination of the wrong week. Or something.

It’s not impossible to meet Napoleon, Especially if you are alive in the right epoch. It is only much easier to meet an impostor. Its possible to be Napoleon. It’s easier to be mistaken for him, mistaken even by yourself. It’s still rare, however, but more common than to be Napoleon.