probability

I Can’t Believe It, But I Try To

Years ago, we met at the pub, like many times before and since.

Him: A meteorite was found in the Hills.

Me: Was it actually found or just seen falling?

Him: Found, by somebody I know, and you also met him before, at least once.

Me, pondering silently: It’s been more than a century, since the only bolide in the whole country was picked up. The area of 20,000 square kilometers has yielded 1 meteorite per 100 years. Now he is telling me the local area of less than 1000 square kilometers has brought us the second in the last year? It’s 1 in 2000.

Me: Maybe.

Reality proved him right, it really happened, despite my disbelief.

http://vesolje.net/navtika/novice/2009/10/21102009.htm

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