Ni cilj da bi bil “računalnik pametnejši od človeka”, cilj je, da bi bil “računalnik pametnejši od človeštva”. Kar je sicer komu samo po sebi očitno, marsikomu pa niti ne prav zelo.
Zato si kar ne neham meti rok od zadovoljstva nad izidom tiste afere s številom dni v mesecih. Na tej spodnji štengi problemov je računalo definitivno zmagalo v tekmi s človeštvom, ne s posameznim človekom. Kdor to lahko sprevidi, za to skoraj najnižjo stopničko hiearhije nalog, v redu.
There is a relatively new YT channel, called Stockfish. Where some immortal chess games between great players of the past, games we all know and love and admire, are scrutinized but no other than Stockfish 15. It turns out, that many errors were made in those games and that after all, are not as great as we believed for so long.
A healthy dose of realism, packed into humorous cynism, is what you get by watching this channel. Highly recommended!
We’ve kind of known this for some time now, haven’t we? At least about chess. That even the best human minds are quite weak, on the absolute scale. We are not the apex chess thinkers, anymore.
But what about other areas?
For several hundred years, we stared into a simple rule, but nobody saw it. A humble rule, for simple usage, was in front of our eyes. It goes like this “A month has less than 31 days, if and only if its Roman numeral has two digits. Otherwise, there are 31 days in that month.” No exceptions and no need for the so-called “knuckle mnemonic”, where you count your bones to establish the number of days in let’s say November. Or any other. You could memorize it also, and you could learn one of many, many mnemonic songs as well. Or look up a calendar, of course.
Last Thursday, however, a small AI experiment delivered the above algorithm. 400 or more years too late perhaps. But it finally did!
How could we be so blind? On the other hand, how good, and intelligent these new machines are? On the absolute scale of things. How good and intelligent they will (soon) become?
If a month, written in a traditional style with Roman numerals has exactly two digits, it has less than 31 days. Like September (IX), for example. Otherwise, a month has 31 days.
Don’t ask me who or what connected these dots.
Pet oseb išče avtorja. Ker pač niso zadovoljne s svojo literarno usodo. Malokdo od knjižnih ali filmskih junakov lahko je. Njihov pisatelj je njihov naravni sovražnik, ki jim nekako mora greniti usodo, da se s tem prikupi svojim založnikom in izbirčnim bralcem, posebno pa še literarnim kritikom iz tegale, neliteraturnega sveta. Če je literanemu junaku predobro in prelepo, je roman (ali film) praviloma označen za “pogrošno literaturo, ki nima nobene globje vrednosti”. Angelika recimo, ali Heidi. Taki avtorji, ko zjutraj preberejo njim namenjene kritike, potem jokajo vso pot do banke, pri kateri imajo odprt svoj račun.
Zaradi te družbene presije, delujoče na status pisateljev in scenaristov, usode junakov fikcije, zdaleč niso samo rožnate. Pisatelj, scenarist in režiser, mirno in radevoljno izdajajo interese in osnovno dobrobit protagonistov svojih štorij. Z nekaj slabo skrivanega sadizma zraven?
Kar je tudi razlog, da ne poznate Reikerjeve resnične usode, čeprav poznate vso StarTrex mitologijo, kar jo je. V nekoliko slabši od standardne ST angleščine, predvsem pa ne ozirajoč se niti malo na vse literarne kodekse, vam jo zdaj na hitro povem.
LaForge: Commander Riker hasn’t arrived at the planet below yet. His arrival can’t be confirmed.
Data: He has been sent by the ship’s teleportation device 50 seconds ago. He is not on the ship as well. Search is on!
Seven hours later:
Picard: After a thorough investigation, I regret to inform you, that Number One has been lost. A major malfunction of the teleportation system and the loss of almost all data about him from all our computer storage has been a consequence of direct Romulan sabotage, directed against him personally. Unfortunately, Romulans were extremely successful at this. Number One, Commander Will Riker is dead.
Picard: Fortunately, we managed to eliminate all the bits of this Rumalanian attack. The ship and the crew are safe again. A considerable retaliation against Romulans will ensue at some later time.
Dr. Crusher: Captain, as you ordered, Riker’s room has been scooped for his DNA. I am glad to inform you, that enough of his hair, saliva remains on his pillow, and so forth have been colected and secured. They will be delivered to geneticists on Rika 7 System when we will be there next time.
Data: Rika 7 geneticists are famous for transforming any complete human DNA into a fertilized egg and then that egg into a newborn baby. A little Willy Riker should be reborn. May I say cloned? All these are in accordance with the contract between Star Fleet Command, Riker, and his parents, when he joined.
Picard: This baby will not be Commander, only Will Riker, himself. In 30 years’ time when he grows up, our Fleet may not be necessary anymore. In that case, Will Riker, Number One, may pursue some other carer path. Or maybe not. Perhaps he will become the most legendary space captain we will ever know. We don’t know that now.
Crusher: May I say, Captain, this will not be him.
Picard: You may, of course, say that, dr. Crusher. But Q, and hence me as well, would profoundly disagree with you, doctor!
Data: The probability of an agreement between Q and Captain Jan-Luc Picard is 0.62 percent!
Picard: Oh, shut up Data! And take the control of the bridge for the next 8 hours. I am retreating to my quarters.
Data: Yes, Sir!
Hja, vidite. Reikerjeva usoda je bila preveč “pocukrana”, da bi to lahko šlo skozi sprotno literarno autocenzuro producentske ekipe. Ampak zdaj veste tole. Človek (ali rastlina ali žival) zares umre šele, ko izgine njegova DNA. Ko izgine zadnji, magari elektronski zapis njegove DNA. Razen seveda, če se ni data ujela v Einstein’s ring kakšne črne luknje. Tam se tekom časa nabere marsikaj. Vendar tega vam ne bom razlagal. Niti, kako nadsvetlobne ladje iz ST skoraj zanesljivo niso mogoče, napredna genetika z Rike 7 pa vsekakor je možna. Niti tega ne bom zdaj razlagal, kar Q in Picard očitno vesta, doktorica Crusher, pa zgleda, ne razume.
Imagine, that the “conspiracy theory” named “Moon Hoax” was the official version of history. What kind of happened in the movie Interstellar. Do we have a real-life example of something like that?
“Officially” there were some insurmountable problems with cloning Dolly the sheep. It just went wrong, as it was supposed to go wrong, anyway. You can’t play God, can you?
Almost nobody, talks about a dozen other clones, from the same time, from the same cell culture. Dolly’s sister clones were quite a perfect success. Either you knew it, or your socks have been just pulled off. Which one?
In to kar v slovenščini. Ker smisel “rubber-ducking”-a je predvsem v fokusiranju lastnih misli, šele potem, v razlaganju drugim. Čeprav, to tudi. Da se večina z večino povedanega ne bo mogla (hotela) strinjati, vem vnaprej. Ampak ne išče se toliko strinjanja in odobravanja, kolikor se išče “rubber-ducking”. Prav, gremo k stvari.
Tole, mi je kakor kamenček v čevlju že dolgo časa. Zadnje čase se je pa sploh nekako nerodno zasukal. Clarcke-ova znamenita teza, da “dovolj razvite tehnologije ne moreš ločiti od magije”. Ni res, sploh ni res, z več aspektov. Res je kvečjemu z gledišča, da “novo tehnologijo bi predniki imeli za magijo, če bi jo videli”. V tem pogledu je res, seveda. Pove pa kvečjemu kaj o vsakokratnih prednikih in vsakokratnih sodobnikih in vsakokratnih zanamcih zadnjih 5000 let zgodovine. Ne pove pa nič ne o magiji, ne o tehnologiji. Še zavaja o obeh.
Najprej, nobena magija ne deluje. Nikoli. Četudi izgleda da deluje, je le tehnologija skrita v čarodejevem namiznem predalu, v katerega na primer pada zajec iz klobuka in hodi nazaj v klobuk. Da bi občinstvo verjelo v čarodejeve magične moči, se razume. Kolikor vem, je bila vera v posamezne, predvsem indijske, avtentične čarodeje še ne tako dolgo nazaj, precej živa. Recimo v tiste, ki so “resnično lebdeli meter nad svojo posteljo na odru”. Ne pa “izvajali cenen a domiseln trik, s precej podobnim rezultatom”. “Žal”, vsi so se morali posluževati “cenenih a domiselnih trikov”, da so bili videti kakor da brez opore lebdijo nad svojo posteljo na odru. S pomočjo neke tehnologije, je bilo morda kdaj res tako videti, magija pa jim ni delovala nikoli, ker magija nikoli ne deluje, zakaj bi zanje delala izjemo?
V čem pa je magija tehnologije, da ta pa deluje? Žal vas moram razočarati zdaj še bolj. “Tehnologija” ni nič drugega kakor nobel beseda za ta ali oni paket čisto naravnih procesov. Ti pa vedno delujejo, naravni procesi. Celo če nek njihov paket poimenovan recimo “ulična razsvetljava” odpove, ni odpovedal noben naravni proces znotraj paketa. Samo nekoliko drugače je šel eden od njih znotraj paketa, kakor smo mi mislil. Narobe smo računali, da bo tok znotraj varovalke ostal pod neko jakostjo. Pa ni, ker ni mogel. Bi, če bi lahko. Potem bi celo moral ostati pod tisto jakostjo. Nikakor ne bi mogel svojevoljno preseči tiste vrednosti in bi mu kaj takega niti ne prišlo na misel. Noben naravni proces še ni skrenil izven svojih omejitev zadnih pa milijonov let, kar bobri gradijo svoje jezove. Niti kdaj prej. Niti v nobeni elektrarni ni morebitno nepravilno delovanje kakšnega naravnega procesa nikoli povzročilo izpada ali mrka. Niti takrat ne, ko so se ene turbine odločile izpuliti se iz jezu in pobiti menda okrog 70 ljudi, so to naredile povsem v skladu z ohranitvijo vrtilne količine in ostalih par formul. Paket naravnih procesov, zvezanih v tehnologijo pridobivanja elekrike “Sayano-Shushenskaya”, ni bil povsem dobro zamišljen.
Skratka. Tehnologija je vedno samo paket naravnih procesov. Če so pravi in prav popakirani, kako “močni” in kako “magični” so lahko kot paket, ansambel? Ketere in kako jih pakirati, da nekaj z njimi naredimo in kaj sploh narediti?
Najprej, časovnega stroja skoraj zagotovo ne boste imeli. Ni povsem 100%, ker ne vemo še vsega o zadevnih naravnih procesih, zgleda pa blizu nemogočega. Najbrž, bo tudi paket naravnih procesov za nadsvetlobno premikanje ostal nedobavljiv. Roke pa ne dam v ogenj. Skoraj pa dam roko v ogenj za “ful nano” paket. Golorok človek je sicer preneumen da to hendlal, kaj šele pogruntal. Superinteligenca, pač.
Tehnologija superinteligence je seveda tudi samo paket naravnih procesov. Kako dobri so ti paketi z nalepko “AI tech” dandanes? Boljši kot si predstavljate, med nami rečeno. Že skoraj neločljivi od magije, kot bi rekel Clarke. Vendar niso vredni da bi nosili sandale onim, ki prihajajo, med nami rečeno. Kljub temu, da bodo samo paketi navodil za povsem naravna dogajanja v CPU-jih, RAM-ih in ostali tej navlaki. Ki je tudi čisto naravna, saj to se razumemo?
Je pa takorekoč za oglom, zdaj naposled, vendarle. Paket fulnano mora posledično biti nedaleč naprej, jaz mislim.
There is a place known as the Pizzeria at the End of the World. They serve pizzas but who doesn’t? They have also installed some computer software to collect orders and to analyze the incoming data for all kinds of patterns and regularities which may occur. Just to be ready for every customer’s whim and for always changing trends and demands. It becomes a science, selling pizzas these days, but what doesn’t?
So, one night, after closing the shop, papa and mamma are driving home. “You know”, started the wife, “computer says, today, there were no two same orders, looking by kinds of pizza served to a table. Not two, despite the fact it was a lot of customers and a lot of pizzas sold!”
“Really?”, says the husband. “Two orders are the same by pizza kinds, if and only if, for every kind of pizza on one order, there is this very same kind of pizza on the other order as well?”
“Yes.”, says the wife, her name was Martha, “One Margarita with two Hawaiian pizzas or two Margaritas with three Hawaiian pizzas are not equal orders, but they are equal by pizza kinds!”
“Very well”, says the husband, his name was Marco, “At least one of those two possible orders was not ordered today, right? And the salads and drinks are all ignored here, am I right?”
“You are always right!”, says Martha. “Moreover, the computer says, that for every pair of orders today, there was one order equal to those two orders combined! Equal by pizza kinds, that is!”
“What an amazing coincidence!”, says Marco. “This computer is too smart for his own good!”
“I wonder”, says Martha, “if there is a kind of pizza ordered today, present on the majority of all orders?”
“Ask the computer”, says Marco, “if there is an order with only one kind of pizza on it.”
“Computer says there is not. This might be good for our business.”, replied Martha.
Then the Wifi connection to the computer back at the Pizzeria at the End of the World, somehow disconnected. So Martha and Marco were on their own for a while.
He says: “You know dear, probably there was a pizza so popular today, that the majority of orders did contain it. I don’t know which one. Today’s state of the art mathematics isn’t powerful enough to ascertain that this is actually the case!”
“Yeah, I realize this now!”, says Martha. “We’ll wait until tomorrow to see. If there is and which one it is.”
Question. At least how many varieties or kinds of pizzas are served at the place, known as the Pizzeria at the End of the World? Assuming the computer, Martha, and Marco are all correct at everything they spoke.
It’s not a trick question, or a joke, or something of that kind.
Solution is here:
The R0 factor for this illness, which denotes the average number of people infected by a carrier, isn’t a constant, it’s a function of time. R0 = R0 (time). In fact, it’s a function of more parameters and not just time. For example, if quarantined, R0 should be close to 0. There are many unknown factors here, of course, some even known. Some push this now well known R0 term bellow 1, others above 1. It’s all about reducing R0 below 1, and the illness will die out. Otherwise, the number of sick people will go through the roof, by the exponential growth function manner.
All of the above is very well known and understood and repeated over and over again now.
Then you get infected, you caught the virus somehow, what now? Your cells will spread the virus among each other by the factor R0IC !
R0IC is the average number of cells, one infected cell will further infect on average. “IC” in standing for “Inter-Cellular”. This is again not a constant but is a function of time and many other known and unknown factors. For example time, temperature, the immune system activity and so on. R0IC = R0IC (t, T, ISactivity, …, ). At least as complex as the transmission factor R0 between humans, is the transmission factor R0IC between cells. When R0 falls bellow 1 for a considerable time period, the epidemics burn out. When R0IC falls bellow 1 for a considerable time period, the particular human’s illness burns out.
The last paragraph above is a less well-known fact, but it’s a fact none the less. Spreading of this virus among cells, in a way closely imitates the spreading among humans. Medical doctors and medical nurses work hard to minimize R0IC in already infected people. They might call it differently, but it is what it is. Stoping the intercellular infection, “flattening the curve” inside the patient’s body, “delaying the disease” inside the patient’s lungs — you name it! Medical professionals thus “delay the disease” inside you, hoping that the immune system will kick in and do the same until done.
Now, when you are infected and breath, you inhale more or less clean air and exhale quite a lot of viruses. Soon, you are inhaling some previously exhaled viruses back and some of those might infect an additional lung cell. By breathing through SCUBA, there are no previously exhaled viruses and therefore this R0IC should go down slightly, shouldn’t it? By breathing some higher oxygen concentrations than normal, this R0IC should go down even more. Since oxygen is a bit toxic for COVID-19.
By breathing some WARMER air than normal, this R0IC should go down even more, since the COVID-19 virus doesn’t like hot air, does it? Especially if the air is salty or smells of some detergent, pure alcohol and so on, it’s killing the viruses. Some even inside your nose and downward, perhaps.
Then, you may, sometimes after infection, during the asymptomatic phase, run up the hill in sunny weather. Puffing like an old locomotive, you will exhale a lot of viruses. Fortunately, nobody is with you and those exhaled viruses will die under the Sun. Again, you even so slightly decreased the R0IC factor and “flattened the curve” of the internal infection between your cells. You may as well try to inhale some eucalyptus hot vapors under the towel, as they suggest already. Perhaps you should insulate yourself in a sauna. Not too hot, not too humid, but just enough for you to survive and not the virus. Under medical control, of course!
And then perhaps, medical doctors should think about their doctrinal procedures for COVID-19 in this light and to refine these suggestions above considerably. I am no medical doctor! But then again, Marylin Vos Savant was no mathematician either but gave a valuable lesson to Paul Erdos himself. There are times when IQ matters the most.
Anyway. When and if you are infected with COVID-19, in the presymptomatic phase, keep the R0IC down as much as you possibly can. The second symptomatic phase may never come. Doing so, you will (ever so slightly) lower the R0 too!
It was today. He is a legend, 99 years old. He invented airbags so early, that his royalties would expire before they started to put them in cars. But earned a lot of money with his other inventions which are many. He knew everyone from Habsburgs to Yugoslavia’s royal family (as a child), Faruk of Egipt, almost every big European and some American businessmen, was a Chaplin’s neighbor in Switzerland ( as an adult)… A lot of photos of a lucky and brilliant man among the international jet-set.
He said he was lucky, I said that the luck is responsible for at most the half of it, the rest was his brilliance, which is genetic. Which is a kind of luck, too, I admit.
Many interesting anecdotes, but not as interesting as his cleverness in problems solving. Problems spotting at the first place, maybe. Where to substitute wood with plastics and make millions? How to spray perfumes? For hundreds of years, nobody bothered with this problem. But he did and solved it.
Then we spoke about AI. Which isn’t as clever as he was in his prime days, but it’s about to become. I didn’t formulate this so directly but he understood it anyway, I guess. I don’t think he believed that. Or even considered it remotely plausible for a second. I told him, that I am not promising him anything. Only that chess has fallen recently and that when chemistry will fall too, there will be no more medical problems anymore. He expressed some deep general pessimism then, which I hate to see, for may it be a bad omen. To whom express it.
His life minus his daughter’s tragic death was as good as a man’s life can be.
protokol2020 