mathematics

Back to Antarctica

We are told, almost on a daily basis, that Antarctica is melting so fast, that the world’s ocean will rise one meter in 30 years or so.

It just so happens, that 1 meter rise over 360 million square kilometers means so much water in this next 1 billion seconds (32 years), that 20 liters of water per second is required from every meter of Antarctica’s coast. Provided that this coast is 17 thousand kilometers long and that it flows all year around.

On average, of course.

Check these numbers for yourself. You will no longer believe it.

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6 thoughts on “Back to Antarctica

    • I’ve concluded that it’s almost impossible to reach a wide agreement about anything. There are only two ways. One is politics. Using a political ideology as leverage, you can get a lot of people on board for anything you want to.

      The other (the honest way) should be the basic arithmetic. If somebody has just received a Nobel prize and you show a fundamental arithmetic error in his work – he will march back and return his prize to that king, monarch or whatever official it is.

      At least in theory, that should work. If the basic math does not agree with something – case dismissed!

      But guess what? A week ago I exercised this same argument in real life. with some very highly qualified people. They understood the math!

      Still, the most qualified of them all, already sent me an email with a lot of links to some standard CCCs (Climate Change Crap). He ignored the arithmetic, of course!

  1. I did. You are off by two decimals. Filling up 3600 m2 per second, on a 18000000 meter coastline, 0,2 liters per second. Put a 2m x 1m x 1m bathtub under a 2m long coastline, fills up in 1 hour 23 min 20 secs. That is not terribly impressive, that sounds like collecting rainwater from the roof during some heavy rain.

    Yes, I agree it is not happening. AGW is a scam. But if it would happen, it would not be a torrent because you are off by two decimals.

    • Let us calculate!

      18000000 meters of coastline? Half of the equator’s length? Not a very realistic assumption. Let say it’s 10 million meters or 10^7 meters. Say, that we have 1 liter per second on every meter. That’s 10^7 liters per second. In 10^9 seconds (32 years) that’s 10^16 liters. Or 10^4 cubic kilometers. Spread it to 100 million square kilometers of the world Ocean, and it will be 10 centimeters high. The World Ocean is three times bigger, so, it’s 3.3 cm high. In 32 years. Or about 10 cm in a century.

      To raise the water level for a whole meter in a century, you need 10 liters per second from every meter.

      I am not at all wrong here. Almost everyone else is.

      • Damn, you are right, I confused a km2 with a hectare. It is one million square meters, not a hundred thousand. I was off with two decimals. 18000000 meters coastline are okay, it is the data on the wiki, but yes it checks out to 20 per meter exactly. For me a better visualization: the Danube here in Vienna is running 1900 m3 / s. So it is like 190 Danubes running off Antarctica lol.

      • I am glad it’s settled. But for the international scientific community is settled otherwise. That you don’t need no river in Antarctica. The seas are just rising magically.

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